Junior Canadian cannabis stocks are red hot to start 2019—but can it last? While it’s obviously too early to draw conclusions, the dichotomy between the beginning of this year and last is quite pronounced.

Backtracking to begin 2018, almost everything went up in unitary fashion. Tier-1, mid-major, junior and micro-caps all rode the M&A wave sweeping the sector via Aurora Cannabis’hostile takeover bid of CanniMed Therapeutics. Newstrike Brands—the junior immersed in it all—rocketed up ↑526.78% in six sessions from January 2-9, 2018. The blow-off top the would soon follow would become the second iteration of the Canadian cannabis bubble.

In the first three trading session to begin 2019, the action has been noticeably more one-sided. While just about everyone has been crushed uniformly during the ongoing post-legalization bear market, only juniors and mid-majors have bounced to begin the year. Granted, it’s early. But here’s how 2019 is shaping up so far:

If we include post-tax loss selling gains ended on December 27th, returns would be more significant.

With juniors (and mid-majors) outperforming to begin the year, signs are emerging that our cannabis investment thesis in 2019 is bearing fruit. The key for investors is ascertaining whether a protracted new trend has begun, or whether the junior sector’s head-start is just another selling opportunity. I don’t believe there’s an ironclad answer to that question; just circumstantial reasoning which an out-of-the-box thinker like myself is paid to verbalize.

So here goes.

Canadian Cannabis Reviews A Mixed Bag So Far

Whether it’s due to industry’s nascent scale growing dynamics, consumer reviews for have been mixed. Reports or over-dried, badly trimmed and packages filled with seeds and stems remain widespread. This appears to be an multi-LP phenomenon, as opposed to isolated companies failing to optimize proper seed-to-sale processes.

One such LP bucking the narrative stereotype in Supreme Cannabis Company. A quick search online yields almost universally good reviews—as do some in-depth connoisseurand consumer reviews. Whether this is perception, reality, or a combination of both, the company has long since advocated high quality product and branding that reflects discerning tastes and preferences. Supreme Cannabis’ estimated production run rate is slated for 50,000 kg at full capacity, coming online in 1H 2019. Just maybe, the market is pricing-in a winning long-term cultivar here—although that’s 110% guesswork. Now that the tax loss selling is complete, perhaps investors are staking their bets.